Some of you will know that Wikileaks recently released a number of confidential US embassy cables. As you can imagine, a number of them contained information or sentiments that the United States government may have rather not had the world know about. The US Embassy in Harare was not immune with a 2007 cable being released on what the then ambassador, Christopher Dell had to say about Zimbabwe.

The full text of the cable (courtesy of Wikileaks) is as follows:

Source Embassy Harare

Classification CONFIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000638

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR P, AF, AND AF/S FOR MOZENA AND HILL,

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.

PITTMAN AND B. LEO; USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI

SUBJECT: The End is Nigh

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4b/d

1. (C) Having said my piece repeatedly over the last three years,

I won’t offer a lengthy prescription for our Zimbabwe

policy. My views can be stated very simply as stay the

course and prepare for change. Our policy is working and it’s

helping to drive change here. What is required is simply the grit,

determination and focus to see this through. Then, when the changes

finally come we must be ready to move quickly to help consolidate

the new dispensation.

THE SITUATION

2. (C) Robert Mugabe has survived for so long because he is more

clever and more ruthless than any other politician in

Zimbabwe. To give the devil his due, he is a brilliant

tactician and has long thrived on his ability to abruptly

change the rules of the game, radicalize the political

dynamic and force everyone else to react to his agenda.

However, he is fundamentally hampered by several factors:

his ego and belief in his own infallibility; his obsessive

focus on the past as a justification for everything in the

present and future; his deep ignorance on economic issues

(coupled with the belief that his 18 doctorates give him

the authority to suspend the laws of economics, including

supply and demand); and his essentially short-term,

tactical style.

3. (C) While his tactical skills have kept him in power for 27

years, over the last seven this has only been achieved by a

series of populist, but destructive and ultimately

self-defeating moves. In reaction to losing the 2000

referendum on the constitution, a vengeful Mugabe unleashed

his “Green Bombers” to commit land reform and in the

process he destroyed Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector, once the

bedrock of the economy. While thousands of white farmers

saw their properties seized, hundreds of thousands of black

Zimbabweans lost their livelihoods and were reduced to utter

poverty. In 2005, having been forced to steal victory by

manipulating the results of an election he lost, Mugabe

lashed out again, punishing the urban populace by launching

Operation Murambatsvina. The result was wholesale

destruction of the informal sector, on which as much as

70-80 percent of urban dwellers had depended, and the

uprooting of 700,000 Zimbabweans. The current inflationary

cycle really began with Murambatsvina, as rents and prices

grew in response to a decrease in supply.

4. (C) And now, faced with the hyperinflationary consequences

of his ruinous fiscal policies and growing reliance on the

printing press to keep his government running, Mugabe has

launched Operation Slash Prices. This has once again given

him a very temporary boost in popularity (especially among

the police, who have led the looting of retail outlets and

now seem well positioned to take a leading role in the

black market economy) at the cost of terrible damage to the

country and people. Many small grocery and shop owners,

traders, etc., will be wiped out; the shelves are

increasingly bare; hunger, fear, and tension are growing;

fuel has disappeared. When the shelves are still empty

this time next week, the popular appeal of the price roll

back will evaporate and the government simply doesn’t have

the resources to replace the entire private commercial

sector and keep Zimbabweans fed. It may attempt to do so

by printing more money, adding even more inflationary

pressure on a system already reeling from the GOZ’s

quasi-fiscal lunacy combined with the price impact of

pervasive shortages. The increasingly worthless Zim dollar

is likely to collapse as a unit of trade in the near

future, depriving the GOZ of its last economic tool other

than sheer thuggery and theft of others’ assets.

5. (C) With all this in view, I’m convinced the end is not

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far off for the Mugabe regime. Of course, my predecessors

and many other observers have all said the same thing, and

yet Mugabe is still with us. I think this time could prove

different, however, because for the first time the

president is under intensifying pressure simultaneously on

the economic, political and international fronts. In the

past, he could always play one of these off against the

other, using economic moves to counter political pressure

or playing the old colonial/race/imperialist themes to buy

himself breathing room regionally and internationally. But

he is running out of options and in the swirling gases of

the new Zimbabwean constellation that is starting to form,

the economic, political and international pressures are

concentrating on Mugabe himself. Our ZANU-PF contacts are

virtually unanimous in saying reform is desperately needed,

but won’t happen while the Old Man is there, and therefore

he must go (finding the courage to make that happen is

another matter, however, but even that may be coming closer).

This is not some sudden awakening on the road to

Damascus, but a reflection of the pain even party insiders

increasingly feel over the economic meltdown. We also get

regular, albeit anecdotal, reports of angry and

increasingly open mutterings against Mugabe even in ZANU-PF’s

traditional rural bastions. Beginning in March, the

other SADC leaders finally recognized (in the wake of the

terrible beatings of March 11 and the international outcry

that followed–another self-inflicted wound for Mugabe)

that Zimbabwe is a problem they need to address. Thabo

Mbeki appears committed to a successful mediation and is

reportedly increasingly irritated with Mugabe’s efforts to

manipulate him or blow him off altogether. If Mugabe

judges that he still commands all he surveys by virtue of

being the elder statesman on the scene, he may be

committing yet another serious blunder. Finally, one does

well to recall that the only serious civil disturbances

here in a decade came in 1998 over bread shortages, showing

that even the famously passive Shona people have their

limits. The terror and oppression of the

intervening years have cowed people, but it’s anyone’s guess

whether their fear or their anger will win out in the end.

WHAT WILL THE END LOOK LIKE?

6. (C) This is the big, unanswerable question. One thing

at least is certain, Mugabe will not wake up one morning a

changed man, resolved to set right all he has wrought. He

will not go quietly nor without a fight. He will cling to

power at all costs and the costs be damned, he deserves to

rule by virtue of the liberation struggle and land reform and

the people of Zimbabwe have let him down by failing to

appreciate this, thus he needn’t worry about their

well-being. The only scenario in which he might agree to

go with a modicum of good grace is one in which he

concludes that the only way to end his days a free man is

by leaving State House. I judge that he is still a long

way from this conclusion and will fight on for now.

7. (C) The optimal outcome, of course, and the only one that

doesn’t bring with it a huge risk of violence and conflict, is

a genuinely free and fair election, under international

supervision. The Mbeki mediation offers the best, albeit

very slim, hope of getting there. However, as Pretoria

grows more and more worried about the chaos to its north

and President Mbeki’s patience with Mugabe’s antics wears

thin, the prospects for serious South African engagement

may be growing. Thus, this effort deserves all the support

and backing we can muster. Less attractive is the idea of

a South African-brokered transitional arrangement or

government of national unity. Mbeki has always favored

stability and in his mind this means a ZANU-PF-led GNU, with

perhaps a few MDC additions. This solution is more likely

to prolong than resolve the crisis and we must guard

against letting Pretoria dictate an outcome which

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perpetuates the status quo at the expense of real change

and reform.

8. (C) The other scenarios are all less attractive: a popular

uprising would inevitably entail a bloodbath, even if it

were ultimately successful; Mugabe’s sudden, unexpected

death would set off a stampede for power among ZANU-PF

heavy weights; a palace coup, whether initiated within

ZANU-PF or from the military – in which Mugabe is removed,

killed, exiled or otherwise disposed of, could well devolve

into open conflict between the contending successors. Similarly,

some form of “constitutional coup” i.e., a change at the top

engineered within the framework of ZANU-PF’s “legitimate”

structures could well prove to be merely the opening bell

in a prolonged power struggle. None of the players is

likely to go quietly into the night without giving everything

they have, including calling on

their supporters in the security services. Moreover, experience

elsewhere would suggest that whoever comes out on top

initially will struggle, and more than likely fail, to halt

the economic collapse. Thus, there is a good prospect of

not one but a series of rapid-fire “transitions,” until

some new, stable dispensation is reached.

9. (C) The final, and probably worst, possibility is that Mugabe

concludes he can settle for ruling over a rump Zimbabwe,

maintaining control over Harare and the Mashona heartland,

the critical forces of the National Reserve Force and CIO

and a few key assets–gold, diamonds, platinum and Air

Zimbabwe to fund the good times. Under this scenario the

rest of the country, in one of the comrade’s favorite

phrases, could “go hang,” leaving it to the international

community to stave off the worst humanitarian consequences.

WHAT OF THE OPPOSITION?

10. (C) Zimbabwe’s opposition is far from ideal and I leave

convinced that had we had different partners we could have

achieved more already. But you have to play the hand you’re dealt.

With that in mind, the current leadership has little executive

experience and will require massive hand holding and assistance

should they ever come to power.

11. (C) Morgan Tsvangarai is a brave, committed man and, by and

large, a democrat. He is also the only player on the scene

right now with real star quality and the ability to rally

the masses. But Tsvangarai is also a flawed figure, not

readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable

judgment in selecting those around him. He is the indispensable

element for opposition success, but possibly an albatross around

t heir necks once in power. In short, he is a kind of Lech Walesa

character: Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive

abilities to lead the country’s recovery. Arthur Mutambara is young

and ambitious, attracted to radical, anti-western rhetoric and

smart as a whip. But, in many respects he’s a light-weight

who has spent too much time reading U.S. campaign messaging

manuals and too little thinking about the real issues. Welshman

Ncube has proven to be a deeply divisive

and destructive player in the opposition ranks and the

sooner he is pushed off the stage, the better. But he is

useful to many, including the regime and South Africa, so

is probably a cross to be borne for some time yet. The

prospects for healing the rift within the MDC seem dim,

which is a totally unnecessary self-inflicted wound on

their part this time. With few exceptions–Tendayi Biti,

Nelson Chamisa–the talent is thin below the top ranks.

The great saving grace of the opposition is likely to be

found in the diaspora. Most of Zimbabwe’s best

professionals, entrepreneurs, businessmen and women, etc.,

have fled the country. They are the opposition’s natural

allies and it is encouraging to see signs, particularly in

South Africa and the UK, that these people are talking,

HARARE 00000638 004 OF 004

sharing ideas, developing plans and thinking together about

future recovery.

12. (C) Unfortunately, among the MDC’s flaws is its inability to

work more effectively with the rest of civil society. The

blame for this can be shared on both sides (many civil

society groups, like the NCA, are single-issue focused and

take the overall dynamic in unhelpful directions; others,

like WOZA, insist on going it alone as a matter of

principle), but ultimately it falls to the MDC as the

largest and the only true political party, to show the

way. Once again, however, these are natural allies and

they have more reason to work together than fight against each

other.

STAYING THE COURSE, PREPARING FOR CHANGE

13. (C) If I am right and change is in the offing, we need to

step up our preparations. The work done over the last year on

transition planning has been extremely useful, both for

stimulating a fresh look at our own assumptions and plans

and for forging a common approach among the traditional

donor community. But the process has lagged since the

meetings in March in London and should be re-energized. It is

encouraging in this respect that USAID Washington has

engaged the Mission here in discussing how we would use

additional resources in response to a genuinely

reform-minded government . I hope this will continue and

the good work done so far will survive the usual

bloodletting of the budget process.

1. (C) The official media has had a field day recently whooping

that “Dell leaves Zimbabwe a failed man”. That’s not quite

how it looks from here. I believe that the firm

U.S. stance, the willingness to speak out and stand up,

have contributed to the accelerating pace of change.

Mugabe and his henchman are like bullies everywhere: if

they can intimidate you they will. But they’re not used to

someone standing up to them and fighting back. It catches them

off guard and that’s when they make mistakes. The howls of protest

over critical statements from Washington or negative coverage

on CNN are the clearest proof of how this hurts them. Ditto

the squeals over “illegal sanctions.” In addition, the regime

has become so used to calling the shots and dictating the

pace that the merest stumble panics them. Many local

observers have noted that Mugabe is panicked and

desperate about hyperinflation at the moment, and hence he’s

making mistakes. Possibly fatal mistakes. We need to

keep the pressure on in order to keep Mugabe off his game

and on his back foot, relying on his own shortcomings to do

him in. Equally important is an active U.S. leadership

role in the international community. The UK is ham-strung

by its colonial past and domestic politics, thus, letting them

set the pace alone merely limits our effectiveness. The EU is

divided between the hard north and its soft southern

underbelly. The Africans are only now beginning to find

their voice. Rock solid partners like Australia don’t

pack enough punch to step out front and the UN is a

non-player. Thus it falls to the U.S., once again, to take

the lead, to say and do the hard things and to set the agenda.

Hundreds, maybe thousands, of ordinary Zimbabweans of all

kinds have told me that our clear, forthright stance has

given them hope and the courage to hang on. By this regime’s

standards, acting in the interests of the people may indeed be

considered a failure. But I believe that the opposite is true,

and that we can be justifiably proud that in Zimbabwe we have

helped advance the President’s freedom Agenda. The people of

this country know it and recognize it and that is the true

touchstone of our success here.

Freshlyground released a music video, “Chicken to Change” a few days ago which will probably attract a bit of attention. At the beginning of the video you see the latex Mugabe saying, “I Robert Gabriel Mugabe do swear that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Zimbabwe and observe the laws of Zimbabwe so help me God” and goes on to cross his fingers close to the end of the speech.

With lyrics like, “An iridescent example of honour for the coming generation… You promised always to open the doors for us… Indeed it is you and only you who sleeps with the key… You are chicken to change!” it is plain to see that the video is a message or challenge to Mugabe to let go of the power he has held on to for decades. But, he is too chicken to do so.

The latex Mugabe character is the creation of the well-known cartoonist and co-creator of ZA NEWS, Zapiro. This may mean we will be seeing more of Mugabe on ZA News.

Given Zimbabwe’s political history is taking such a stand against Mugabe really worth the while or is it a waste of time?

Watch the video and draw your own conclusions.

Over the weekend, reports surfaced that a Tracy Guvamombe was allegedly raped by two Tanzanian students in the South East Asian country where she attends university. The twist in this story is that Tracy is Bona Mugabe, the daughter of President Mugabe.

Without going into the details (which you can read here), the thing that was a little disturbing was the fact that some people found it quite amusing that she went through the ordeal. Some of the comments scattered across the internet include:

- Now she knows what it is like and what her father has been unleashing on innocent civilians its a pity she is not also made to dance on her parents grave singing mdc songs.
- Have not heard such good news in a very long time. Nditumireiwo mvura, kwandiri kunopisa.
- You see God is fair, those who rape other peoples children will also have their children raped. Too bad Bona, you were pretty.
- let Mugabe and Grace taste their own medicine, girls were raped during his 2008 violent campaign, now zvaitikawo kwake, that is revenge from the all mighty.Cde the same bitterness you feel is exactly how we felt when our beloved ones were raped. Zvaiwana ngwarati
(note: these are the comments expressed by various individuals across the internet)

The few listed above are the more “tamer” ones. There are a few out there where the commenters did not hold back any feelings.  The questions at hand is whether or not those types of comments were warranted? Her father is who he is and he has done what he has done. That being said, should she be held accountable for her father’s actions? This is not to say that all the comments that people are making are ones of joy and celebration. Some individuals were unhappy that others were revelling in the fact that someone was raped.

If Bona was in fact raped, this is a violation of her human rights. Should she not then be accorded the same kind of justice that other victims of this crime seek? Or, is this something that she does deserve because of who she is?

Share your thoughts.

1980 – The Year of the People’s Power (Gore reMasimba eVanhu – Umnyaka Wamandla Abantu) is a publication that was put out in 1980. It is a New Year Message to the people of Zimbabwe by Comrade Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the President of the Zimbabwe African Union ZANU (PF).

In it, he talks about the revolutionary triumphs and misfortunes that they face along the way. It also touches on the progress of certain objectives such as the ZANLA Forces Eleven Tasks, British colonisation, traitorous puppets working against the victorious Zimbabwean masses and other significant events in the liberation war (Chimurenga).

Here is an excerpt of the first two paragraphs:
Revolutionary and New Year greetings to all the struggling and victorious masses of Zimbabwe, Revolutionary and New year greetings to all our ZANU Members within and without the country, Revolutionary and New Year greetings to all our friends and allies outside Zimbabwe.

I wish to address you, the revolutionary masses of Zimbabwe with mixed feelings of joy and sorrow: joy, because we are now on the dawn of victory when the enemy’s military machine has crumbled and the puppet regime it tried to prop has fallen; but sorrow, because the dawn of ZANU’s victory, the dawn of your victory, has become a dark moment for us all, for we have suffered the tragic loss of our Secretary for Defence, Comrade Josiah Magama Tongogara.

The full 12 page publication is available in PDF format for US$0.50. To purchase the publication visit the Living Zimbabwe Store or by clicking on the Buy Now button below which will take you through to PayPal

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1980 – The Year of the People’s Power by Comrade R G Mugabe

This was published in 1980 and is a New Year Message to the people of Zimbabwe by Comrade Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the President of the Zimbabwe African Union ZANU (PF).

The first paragraph reads: Revolutionary and New Year greetings to all the struggling and victorious masses of Zimbabwe, Revolutionary and New year greetings to all our ZANU Members within and without the country, Revolutionary and New Year greetings to all our friends and allies outside Zimbabwe.

Price: $1.00
$0.50Price:

Driving around Harare, it is hard not to notice graffiti dotted all over the place. Most the graffiti is politically motivated and expresses people’s sentiments on the state of certain affairs in Zimbabwe. A lot of the graffiti points towards disdain for President R. G. Mugabe and Zanu PF and even towards the Chinese who are increasing in number in Zimbabwe.

Sometimes it is really not that hard to see where people stand with political issues. When listening to political conversations/debates there will be those who 100% support the actions of the last few years and those who clearly have a deep seeded hatred for Mugabe and members of Zanu PF because of their actions, attitudes and stance on various issues. Those with that deep seeded hatred have said that no matter what steps are put in place to rectify situations, they still would not find it in their heart to forgive.

If people were to step up to the plate and publicly acknowledge wrongdoings and ask for forgiveness, would you find it in your heart forgive?

Below are only just a few examples of what people had to say:

Its official, Morgan Richard Tsvangirai is sleeping with the devil. February 11, 2009 was the day that he was officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Zimbabwe by his long time rival Robert Gabriel Mugabe. This event is supposed to pave the way for a unity government but is it really going to be a unity government? Mugabe and Tsvangirai are hard nuts to crack and both have different ideologies on the way the country should be run.

The chance of Mugabe being a willing and co-operative partner in a unity government is something that one can only believe when it happens. As crazy as he is, he is a smart man who has managed to outwit his opponents and brainwash entire organisations such as SADC who seem to see no reason to remove him from power.
He has a strong personal connection with Zimbabwe but his misdirected passion has resulted in an almost failed state. Regardless of all of that, he still declares Zimbabwe as being his. With that being his frame of thought, what are the chances of him really sharing power with MDC?

Tsvangirai on the other hand, however unhappy he may have been with the way the whole agreement was to be played out still went ahead with it. With the way events have unfolded in the past few months it seems as if Morgan was forced into the agreement if he wanted to play any sort of meaningful role in Zimbabwean politics. He was given ultimatums by Mugabe and SADC that basically said take what you are being offered or have nothing at all. MDC is now part of the unity government and they have made many promises to the people of Zimbabwe. Now we all wait and see if they will live up to them.

Click here to read the full text of The Inauguration Speech of the Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, His Excellency, Morgan Tsvangirai

Could we really have been better off if Joshua Nkomo had gotten his way?

Rice, Bush, Tutu, Odinga, Brown and Sentamu are amongst the growing number of world figures speaking up against Mugabe and saying that it is time for him to step down. Whether or not the increasing number of calls for him to step down will have an effect is yet to be seen.

As far as Mugabe is concerned, he has and is doing all he can to keep Zimbabwe alive. He is just going to continue blaming all of Zimbabwe’s problems on sanctions imposed by the West. Zimbabwe’s information minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu was quoted as having said the following to reporters earlier in the week:

“I don’t have kind words for all heads of state who have made utterances against Zimbabwe, one by one and I hope this is the last time they open their dirty mouths on Zimbabwe”

“After squeezing and strangling the country with sanctions and contaminating it with cholera and anthrax, the West is seeking to use the window of opportunity provided by the disaster to justify military intervention”

With that being the case, what are the chances of Mugabe listening to ultimatums from the West?

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